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Investing in Silver 9/18/2009.

During the past year, silver (SLV:US) rallied from a low of $8.45 in October 2008 to $16.70 at the close today, Sept 18, 2009, Friday.  This is a heady 98% rise, assuming you could have timed it perfectly.  My brother thinks silver coins are a great investment for the immediate future, and expect continued large price gains. 

I don't know what is controlling the price of silver.  I think it could be a decent inflation hedge, except for the low trading volume.  When Warren Buffet buys or sells silver, there is a huge spike/dip in the price.

When examined over a 5-year period, silver looks more stationary.  Anytime an asset has had a meteoric rise in the past 12-months, there is a risk of a big pull-back.  I do think inflation is highly likely, but not in the next 2 years.  I think the most likely scenario is a moderate but insistent inflation in USD (and maybe Euro too), perhaps around 5% per year, that could wipe out 50% of purchasing power over the next 15 years.

 

 

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